Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
